Buying levels on the Dow

Let me declare it.

We are still in a long term BULL MARKET cycle.

Yes, that was not a typo. A bull market.

Now I realise that we have had the technical price move required to be in a technical bear market off the 45,000 Dow Jones tops, but we are still in the final stages of a major bull market pattern that is likely to extend into 2027.

In my view, the recent volatility in the global financial markets has provided a perfect opportunity to look at price support levels on the major global indices.

This is one of those examples of where the short term techniques described in Trading with the Time Factor (volumes 1 & 2) interconnect with the 2025 Road Map forecast and most importantly, my recently published piece on the WD Gann Timetable Explained.

There is a reason why I released the WD Gann Timetable Explained work earlier this year. In that report, I talk about MAJOR CYCLES that cover 18 - 20 year economic cycles, why they occur and the key dates within them. Those key dates include a description of the "bull periods" as well as the ending and then "beginning" of the new cycle. I even provide the exact dates (to the calendar day) when those periods start and finish.

Make no mistake, we are approaching the end of a MAJOR CYCLE, but it still has a little bit more to play out.

So this is how I have been thinking about the most recent price volatility.

Firstly, the most basic of price measures is to use the major retracement points to look for areas where price support is likely to occur. As you can see from the chart below, 36,866 represented the strongest level at 50% between the major low in 2022 and the most recent all time high.

Next, we combine this with the most basic of price repetition ranges. In this case, using the same 2022 low we referenced above and the preceding price move down into it. From the late 2021 highs, the Dow Jones retraced 22.4% or a total of roughly 8,291 points. Now, back then, the 22.4% retracement was technically a "bear market" just like we have now, but it ignores probably one of the greatest bull market runs in recent memory that immediately followed it. The Dow Jones rising from 29,000 all the way up to the 45,000 highs. Those of you with the Road Maps and the Timetable would have known we were still in a bull market.

Now, a 100% repeat of that price move down, gives us 36,781 as a price target to look for price support. So when we combine the two together, the prices between 36,700 and 36,800 give us a pretty good possibility that major price support could be found.

If one is to believe that the MAJOR CYCLE hasn't ended yet, then buying stocks at a 20% discount to the recent all time high isn't a bad place to start! You can run a similar analysis on most international global equity indices - the Japan Nikkei, the Australian ASX 200 and the FTSE 100 are a few that I am running my analysis over right now.

So, here is my opinion.

And remember. It is just an opinion. I am not a licensed financial advisor and I am not giving anyone any financial advice. This is just my analysis of the charts.

But if someone was to ask for my opinion, then my reply would be that I don't think this BULL MARKET CYCLE is over and I don't think those highs at 45,000 will remain to be the all time highs in 2026 and certainly into 2027.

Now, I am not saying either that the potential for further sell offs in the markets are over. We are in volatile times right now, so I am taking a long term view. But my long term view hasn't changed since the start of the year and since the beginning of 2011 when I knew we had entered a MAJOR LONG TERM BULL MARKET again.

There will be a time when the music stocks for global equity markets. I just don't think we are at that time. Not yet.

Until next time.