Netflix - time to subscribe?

I've been watching a lot of Netflix lately over the Christmas and New Year period and thought it would be timely to take a look also at the Netflix share price.

Whilst I'd been seeing a lot of press about how Netflix and Paramount+ were in a bidding war for Warner Bros., I was surprised to see how much the share price of Netflix had retraced from the recent highs back in late June 2025 at around $134.

The stock price has been under pressure since it released earnings guidance back in October 2025, when results missed expectations and guidance disappointed some investors — even though revenue was strong. Market reaction was negative and shares dropped sharply after the report.

But does this provide an opportunity?

We at the Time Factor have long maintained that the 50% retracement point is the strongest point to look for when you are trying to determine price support or resistance. The bigger the price range you are using and the longer the time frame between the A and the B point, the more significant is the C point price retracement.

If you are looking for a recent example, this is why I was so strong on the price levels we saw on the S&P 500 back in April 2025 when the stock market made its lows. You can read more about that here.

Turning back to Netflix, the stock price is now beginning to enter some interest price and time history on a couple of fronts.

Firstly, is the most recent significant price retracement move down from the highs back in 2021. In that move, the stock retraced a massive 76% from the tops, or a price move of $53.83. The stock then went an an absolute tear from there, reaching its high at $134.12 back in June 2025. Since then, the share price has been in decline (see chart below).

When we look at this, we can see the potential for some more downside in the share price - either to $80.30 - which would be a repeat of the preceding range down, but potentially down to $75.27 which would take us to the major 50% point on this massive recent bull market run higher.

It would take a prolonged move below these levels before we became long term negative on the stock. These price retracements can actually be seen as quite healthy. Just look at either the Tesla or Nvidia share price and how they responded over the last several months when it looked like they were entering bear markets.

To declare my interests - I'm a Netflix subscriber, but not yet a shareholder. That might change, particularly if we see some price support of $75.27 which is where things might get interesting.

But right now, I'm heading back to the couch to watch some Netflix TV.

Until next time...

Interestingly